aleatoric uncertainty

Aleatoric uncertainty refers to the inherent randomness or variability in a system or process. It is the type of uncertainty that arises from the unpredictable nature of events or phenomena, where multiple outcomes are possible and their likelihood cannot be accurately determined. It is distinct from epistemic uncertainty, which is uncertainty due to incomplete knowledge or understanding. Aleatoric uncertainty is often observed in complex systems, such as weather forecasting or financial markets, where the outcome is influenced by numerous factors and cannot be precisely predicted.

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